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Monday, July 26, 2021

A few Comments on June New Home Sales

by Calculated Risk on 7/26/2021 10:34:00 AM

New home sales for June were reported at 676,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Sales for the previous three months were revised down significantly.

This was well below consensus expectations for June, and probably the start of a number of months with year-over-year declines.

However, sales were in line with home builder comments about "limiting sales", closing communities and limited finished inventory.

Earlier: New Home Sales Decrease to 676,000 Annual Rate in June.

New Home Sales 2018 2019Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows new home sales for 2020 and 2021 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

The year-over-year comparisons were easy in the first half of 2021 - especially in March and April.

However, sales will likely be down year-over-year in the 2nd half of 2021 - since the selling season was delayed in 2020.

And on inventory: note that completed inventory (3rd graph in previous post) is near record lows, but inventory under construction is closer to normal.

New Home Sales, Months by Stage of ConstructionThis graph shows the months of supply by stage of construction.

The inventory of completed homes for sale was at 36 thousand in June, just above the record low of 33 thousand in March and April 2021. That is about 0.6 months of completed supply (just above the record low).

The inventory of new homes under construction, and not started, is at 5.6 months - slightly above the normal level.  However, a record 105 thousand homes have not been started - about double the normal level.