In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Thursday, June 10, 2021

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 376,000

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2021 08:38:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending June 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 376,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 385,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The 4-week moving average was 402,500, a decrease of 25,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 428,000. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500.
emphasis added
This does not include the 71,292 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 73,249 the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 402,500.

The previous week was unrevised.

Regular state continued claims decreased to 3,499,000 (SA) from 3,757,000 (SA) the previous week.

Note: There are an additional 6,347,472 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 6,360,202 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And an additional 5,231,952 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 5,301,821.

Weekly claims were at the consensus forecast.