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Saturday, June 26, 2021

Schedule for Week of June 27, 2021

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2021 08:11:00 AM

The key report scheduled for this week is the June employment report to be released on Friday.

Other key reports include the June ISM Manufacturing survey, June Vehicle Sales, April Case-Shiller house prices, and the Trade Deficit for May.

----- Monday, June 28th -----

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June. This is the last of the regional surveys for June.

----- Tuesday, June 29th -----

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for April.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 12.3% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for April.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for April 2021. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

----- Wednesday, June 30th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for June. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 600,000 payroll jobs added in June, down from 978,000 lost in May.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for May. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase in the index.

----- Thursday, July 1st -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for a decrease to 400 thousand from 411 thousand last week.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 61.5, up from 61.2 in May. The employment index was at 50.9% in May, and the new orders index was at 67.0%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for May. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in construction spending.

Vehicle SalesLate in the day: Light vehicle sales for June.

The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 17.1 million SAAR in June, up from 17.0 million in May (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

Wards Auto is forecasting sales of 15.8 million SAAR in June.

----- Friday, July 2nd -----

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart8:30 AM: Employment Report for June.   The consensus is for 675,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 5.6%.

There were 559,000 jobs added in May, and the unemployment rate was at 5.8%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, but currently is not as severe as the worst of the "Great Recession".

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for May from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $70.8 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $68.9 billion the previous month.