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Friday, June 25, 2021

Q2 GDP Forecasts: 8% to 10%

by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2021 11:58:00 AM

From BofA:

Weak home sales, trade, and inventories this week led us to take down our 2Q GDP tracking estimate back down to 10% qoq saar. [June 25 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
The May increase in services consumption was softer than our previous assumptions, and we lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by ¼pp to 8.5% (qoq ar). [June 25 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.4% for 2021:Q2 and 4.1% for 2021:Q3. [June 25 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 8.3 percent on June 25, down from 9.7 percent on June 24. [June 25 estimate]