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Thursday, June 03, 2021

Goldman May Payrolls Preview

by Calculated Risk on 6/03/2021 04:25:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 750k in May (mom sa) ... Following the surprisingly weak April report, we believe the further easing of business restrictions more than offset a moderate drag from labor supply factors and seasonality. ... We estimate a three-tenths drop in the unemployment rate to 5.8% (consensus 5.9%), reflecting a strong household employment gain but a further rise in the participation rate.
emphasis added
CR Note: The consensus is for 650 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 5.9%.