Friday, April 16, 2021

Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 7%

by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2021 11:19:00 AM

Note that the forecasts of the automated systems (based on released data), have caught up with the forecasts of economists, as data for March is released.

From Merrill Lynch:

Despite robust retail sales growth, it was less bullish than our forecast, resulting in a 0.5pp reduction to our 1Q GDP tracking estimate, to 6.5% qoq saar. [Apr 16 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged on a rounded basis at +7.5% (qoq ar). [Apr 16 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 6.8% for 2021:Q1 and 4.4% for 2021:Q2. [Apr 16 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 8.3 percent on April 16, unchanged from April 15 after rounding. After this morning's housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 10.6 percent to 10.2 percent. [Apr 16 estimate]