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Friday, April 09, 2021

Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 7%

by Calculated Risk on 4/09/2021 01:48:00 PM

Note that the forecasts of the automated systems (based on released data) are lower than the forecasts of economists. Economists are expecting March to be very strong.

From Merrrill Lynch:

We continue to track 7.0% for 1Q GDP growth. [Apr 9 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +7.5% (qoq ar). [Apr 9 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 6.0% for 2021:Q1 and 1.5% for 2021:Q2. [Apr 9 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 6.0 percent on April 9, down from 6.2 percent on April 7. [Apr 9 estimate]