by Calculated Risk on 4/27/2021 10:36:00 AM

The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q1 2021.

It is likely the results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic.  

This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates.  However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey.

This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. Analysts probably shouldn't use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant supply or household formation, or rely on the homeownership rate, except as a guide to the trend.

"National vacancy rates in the first quarter 2021 were 6.8 percent for rental housing and 0.9 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate of 6.8 percent was not statistically different from the rate in the first quarter 2020 (6.6 percent) and 0.3 percentage points higher than the rate in the fourth quarter 2020 (6.5 percent). The homeowner vacancy rate of 0.9 percent was 0.2 percentage points lower than the rate in the first quarter 2020 (1.1 percent) and 0.1 percentage points lower than the rate in the fourth quarter 2020 (1.0 percent)

The homeownership rate of 65.6 percent was not statistically different from the rate in the first quarter 2020 (65.3 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the fourth quarter 2020 (65.8 percent). "

Click on graph for larger image.

The Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st 1990, 2000 and 2010.  The Census Bureau will released data for 2020 soon.

The HVS homeownership rate decreased to 65.6% in Q1, from 65.8% in Q4.

The results in Q2 through Q4 of 2020 were distorted by the pandemic.

The HVS homeowner vacancy increased to 0.9% from 1.0% in Q4.

Once again - this probably shows the general trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers.

The rental vacancy rate increased to 6.8% in Q1 from 6.5% in Q4.

The quarterly HVS is the most timely survey on households, but there are many questions about the accuracy of this survey.