In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Tuesday, February 16, 2021

Wednesday: Retail Sales, PPI, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey, Q4 Report on Household Debt

by Calculated Risk on 2/16/2021 09:06:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Rates Surge; Time To Adjust Your Mortgage Game Plan

Recovery prospects, renewed focus on stimulus, inflation concerns, a brighter covid outlook, etc... All of these are reasons for an ongoing, gradual trend toward higher rates in 2021 (i.e. general bond market weakness) but none of them really explain why the bond market had its worst day in months today specifically.
In outright terms, the average 30yr fixed rate is still under 3%, so the world (of low rates) is far from over. [30 year fixed 2.96%]
emphasis added
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for January is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in retail sales.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for December from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for January. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 74.8%.

• At 10:00 AM, The February NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 83, unchanged from 83. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

• At 11:00 AM, NY Fed: Q4 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit