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Monday, February 22, 2021

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Fed Chair Powell Testimony

by Calculated Risk on 2/22/2021 09:11:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: February Easily The Worst Month For Rates in Long Time

There are still 4 business days left in the month of February and thus still 4 days for the bond market to undergo an epic recovery that helps mortgage rates come back down. But traders and market-watchers alike have pined for--if not outright expected--such a recovery several times in the past few weeks only to be disappointed. Merely avoiding additional rate spikes would be a victory at this point.

Even if we can manage to avoid further rate spikes, February will still go down as the worst month for rates since January 2018 (March 2020 was worse at face value, but it's not really a fair comparison due to the unprecedented bond market reaction to the pandemic).

Some back-of-the-napkin math (OK, it's actually more official than that) shows the average lender charging at least a quarter of a percent more today than at the end of January. Depending on the initial rate quote, today's rates are .375% higher in many cases. [30 year fixed 3.10%]
emphasis added
• At 9:00 AM ET, FHFA House Price Index for December 2020. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

• Also at 9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for December. The consensus is for a 9.1% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for December.

• At 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate