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Saturday, February 27, 2021

Schedule for Week of February 28, 2021

by Calculated Risk on 2/27/2021 08:11:00 AM

The key report scheduled for this week is the February employment report.

Other key reports scheduled for this week are the trade deficit and February vehicle sales.

Fed Chair Powell speaks on the U.S. economy on Thursday.

----- Monday, Mar 1st -----

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 58.9, up from 58.7 in January. 

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in construction spending.

----- Tuesday, Mar 2nd -----

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for February. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 16.4 million SAAR in February, down from 16.6 million in January (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the January sales rate.

10:00 AM: Corelogic House Price index for January.

----- Wednesday, Mar 3rd -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for February. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 168,000 payroll jobs added in February, down from 174,000 added in January.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for February.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, Mar 4th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for a increase to 760 thousand from 730 thousand last week.

12:05 PM: Discussion with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Conversation on the U.S. Economy, At The Wall Street Journal Jobs Summit (via livestream)

----- Friday, Mar 5th -----

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart8:30 AM: Employment Report for February.   The consensus is for 148,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 6.4%.

There were 49,000 jobs added in January, and the unemployment rate was at 6.3%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and the worst in terms of the unemployment rate.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for January from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $67.5 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $66.6 billion in December.