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Friday, February 19, 2021

Q1 GDP Forecasts: Movin' on up

by Calculated Risk on 2/19/2021 12:28:00 PM

From Merrrill Lynch:

Retail sales boosted our 1Q21 GDP tracking estimate by 1.5pp to 5.5% qoq saar. [Feb 19 estimate] emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We boosted our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 1pp to +6.0% (qoq ar). [Feb 17 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 8.3% for 2021:Q1. [Feb 19 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 9.5 percent on February 18 [Feb 18 estimate]