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Wednesday, February 10, 2021

Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Soft in January

by Calculated Risk on 2/10/2021 04:13:00 PM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% January. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in December. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for January here. Motor fuel was up 135% annualized in January.

Inflation Measures Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.1%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.0%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 1.4%. Core PCE is for December and increased 1.4% year-over-year.

Overall inflation will not be a concern during the crisis.

Important Note: We will likely see some year-over-year jumps in some measures of inflation, since we saw some deflation in 2020. For example, we saw negative Month-to-month (MoM) core CPI and CPI readings in March, April and May 2020. Assuming positive readings in those months in 2021, the YoY change in CPI and core CPI will jump.


We also saw negative MoM PCE and core PCE reading in March and April 2020.  Ignore a jump in YoY inflation in March, April and May!