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Friday, February 05, 2021

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased

by Calculated Risk on 2/05/2021 01:21:00 PM

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.

This data is as of February 2nd.

From Black Knight: End of January Sees Reduction Of 45k Forbearance Plans, But Overall Recovery Remains Stalled

New data from our McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker shows that the end of the month brought about an expected reduction of 45,000 (-1.6%) active forbearance plans, driven by month-end expirations. Servicers still have an additional 47,000 plans with Jan. 31 expiration dates on their books, which opens up the potential for additional modest declines in volumes over the next few days as these plans are reviewed for extension/removal.
As of Feb. 2, there are now 2.72 million homeowners in active COVID-19-related forbearance plans. This is 5.1% of all U.S. mortgage-holders. While this is the lowest such volume of forbearances seen since late April, volumes have been stuck in the 2.72-2.81 million range since early November. As we move toward the middle of February, it will be worth focusing on the trend of mid-and late month increases in active forbearance plans.

Black Knight ForbearanceClick on graph for larger image.

Looking ahead to February’s month-end, some 390,000 plans are set to expire, representing one (and potentially the last) moderate opportunity for improvement in forbearance volumes before the first wave of plans is set to reach their 12-month expiration at the end of March. At Black Knight, we will be especially interested in what the next couple months bring as far as forbearance-related recovery and will continue to closely monitor the data.
emphasis added
The number of loans in forbearance has moved mostly sideways for the last few months.