Thursday, January 07, 2021

Goldman December Payrolls Preview

by Calculated Risk on 1/07/2021 03:10:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls declined 50k in December ... most of the Big Data employment signals we track indicate an outright decline in payrolls. Additionally, restaurant seatings fell back to July levels, and initial claims rose for the first time since April. ... We estimate the unemployment rate rebounded a tenth to 6.8%
emphasis added
CR Note: The consensus is for 70 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 6.8%.