by Calculated Risk on 1/29/2021 04:26:00 PM

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 2.87% in December, from 2.96% in November. The serious delinquency rate is up from 0.66% in December 2019.

These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.

Click on graph for larger image

By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (2% of portfolio), 5.88% are seriously delinquent (up from 5.87% in November). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (2% of portfolio), 9.98% are seriously delinquent (down from 10.00%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2018 (95% of portfolio), 2.39% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.48%). So Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years.

Mortgages in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus.

This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble.   Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once they are employed.