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Friday, January 08, 2021

December Employment Report: 140 Thousand Jobs LOST, 6.7% Unemployment Rate

by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2021 08:43:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 140,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The decline in payroll employment reflects the recent increase in coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and efforts to contain the pandemic. In December, job losses in leisure and hospitality and in private education were partially offset by gains in professional and business services, retail trade, and construction.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised up by 44,000, from +610,000 to +654,000, and the change for November was revised up by 91,000, from +245,000 to +336,000. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined was 135,000 more than previously reported.
emphasis added
Year-over-year change employmentClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In December, the year-over-year change was negative 9.37 million jobs.

Total payrolls decreased by 140 thousand in December.  Private payrolls decreased by 95 thousand.

Payrolls for October and November were revised up 135 thousand combined.

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job ChartThe second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and is still worse than the worst of the "Great Recession".

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment rates The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 61.5% in December. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio was unchanged at 57.4% (black line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate was unchanged in December at 6.7%.

This was well below consensus expectations, however October and November were revised up by 135,000 combined.

I'll have much more later …