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Tuesday, December 29, 2020

Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: "Nothing Short of Remarkable", 9.5% YoY in November

by Calculated Risk on 12/29/2020 02:55:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for October were released today. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: October Case-Shiller Results & November Forecast: Nothing Short of Remarkable

The path of home prices in recent months has been nothing short of remarkable. In many places across the country, and in the nation overall, home prices are growing by some measures at their fastest pace in decades. Record low mortgage rates, a wave of households aging into homeownership and a limited number of homes for sale all combined to stoke competition for houses and placed consistent upward pressure on prices for the better part of the last calendar year. These factors appear likely to remain in place in the near term, and an incrementally improving economy should encourage more buyers to enter the market. Taken together, this torrid pace of home price appreciation appears primed to continue well into 2021.
Monthly growth in November as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to slow slightly from October in all three main indices, while annual growth is expected to accelerate across the board. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the November S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, January 26.
emphasis added
Zillow forecast for Case-ShillerThe Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 9.5% in November, up from 8.4% in October.

The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to be up 8.9% YoY in November from 7.9% in October, and for the 10-City index to increase to be up 8.4% YoY compared to 7.5% YoY in October.