Thursday, November 12, 2020

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 709,000

by Calculated Risk on 11/12/2020 08:40:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending November 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 709,000, a decrease of 48,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 6,000 from 751,000 to 757,000. The 4-week moving average was 755,250, a decrease of 33,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,500 from 787,000 to 788,500.
emphasis added
This does not include the 298,154 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 361,959 the previous week. (There are some questions on PUA numbers).

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 755,250.

The previous week was revised up.

The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).

At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.

Continued claims decreased to 6,786,000 (SA) from 7,222,000 (SA) last week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.

Note: There are an additional 9,433,127 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that increased from 9,332,610 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. 

An additional 4,143,389 are receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) that increased from 3,983,613 the previous week.