Thursday, November 05, 2020

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 751,000

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2020 08:38:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending October 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 751,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 7,000 from 751,000 to 758,000. The 4-week moving average was 787,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 3,250 from 787,750 to 791,000.
emphasis added
This does not include the 362,883 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 359,044 the previous week. (There are some questions on PUA numbers).

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 787,000.

The previous week was revised up.

The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).

At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.

Continued claims decreased to 7,285,000 (SA) from 7,823,000 (SA) last week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.

Note: There are an additional 9,332,610 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 10,324,779 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. 

An additional 3,961,060 are receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) that increased from 3,683,496 the previous week.