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Saturday, November 28, 2020

Schedule for Week of November 29, 2020

by Calculated Risk on 11/28/2020 08:23:00 AM

The key report this week is the November employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the November ISM manufacturing and services indexes, November auto sales, and the October trade deficit.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell will provide testimony on the "Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act".

----- Monday, Nov 30th -----

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for November.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for October. The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in the index.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November.

----- Tuesday, Dec 1st -----

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for November.  The consensus is for 57.5%, down from 59.3%.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The PMI was at 59.3% in October, the employment index was at 53.2%, and the new orders index was at 67.9%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for October.  The consensus is for 0.4% increase in spending.

10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for November.

The consensus is for 16.2 million SAAR in November, unchanged from the BEA estimate of 16.2 million SAAR in October (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

----- Wednesday, Dec 2nd -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for November. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 420,000 jobs added, up from 365,000 in October.

10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, Dec 3rd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 825,000 initial claims, up from 778,000 last week.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for November.

----- Friday, Dec 4th -----

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart8:30 AM: Employment Report for November.   The consensus is for 500 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 6.7%.

There were 638 thousand jobs added in October, and the unemployment rate was at 6.9%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and the worst in terms of the unemployment rate.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for October from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $64.7 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $63.9 billion in September.