Thursday, November 19, 2020

Philly Fed Manufacturing "Continued to Grow" in November

by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2020 09:44:00 AM

From the Philly Fed: November 2020 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to firms responding to the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments remained positive for the sixth consecutive month but fell from their readings in October. However, employment increases were more widespread this month. Most future indexes also moderated this month but continue to indicate that firms expect growth over the next six months.

The diffusion index for current activity decreased 6 points to 26.3 in November, its sixth consecutive positive reading after reaching long-term lows in April and May The current employment index, however, fell 3 points to 12.7 this month ... On balance, the firms reported increases in manufacturing employment for the fifth consecutive month. The current employment index increased 15 points to 27.2.
emphasis added
This was close to the consensus forecast.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (blue, through November), and five Fed surveys are averaged (yellow, through October) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through October (right axis).

These early reports suggest the ISM manufacturing index will still be solid, but will likely decrease slightly in November from the October level.