Thursday, November 19, 2020

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 32.7% Year-over-year

by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2020 11:17:00 AM

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 14 November

U.S. weekly hotel occupancy slipped further from previous weeks, according to the latest data from STR through 14 November.

8-14 November 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):

Occupancy: 43.2% (-32.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$90.58 (-28.6%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$39.11 (-52.0%)

After ranging between 48% and 50% occupancy from mid-July into the later portion of October, the last three weeks have produced levels of 44.4%, 44.1% and 43.2%.
emphasis added
Since there is a seasonal pattern to the occupancy rate - see graph below - we can track the year-over-year change in occupancy to look for any improvement. This table shows the year-over-year change since the week ending Sept 19, 2020:

Week EndingYoY Change, Occupancy Rate
9/19-31.9%
9/26-31.5%
10/3-29.6%
10/10-29.2%
10/17-30.7%
10/24-31.7%
10/31-29.0%
11/7-35.9%
11/14-32.7%

This suggests no improvement over the last 9 weeks, and occupancy might be getting worse.

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Hotel Occupancy RateClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - before 2020).

Seasonally we'd expect the occupancy rate to decline into the new year. Note that there was little pickup in business travel that usually happens in the Fall.

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.