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Tuesday, November 03, 2020

Early Q4 GDP Forecasts

by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2020 02:29:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

We expect growth to slow to 3% qoq saar in 4Q amid the stimulus stalemate. [Oct 30 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +4.5%. [Nov 3 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.2% for 2020:Q4. [Oct 30 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 3.4 percent on November 2, up from 2.2 percent on October 30. [Nov 2 estimate]
It is important to note that GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).  A 3.3% annualized increase in Q4 GDP, is about 0.8% QoQ, and would leave real GDP down about 2.7% from Q4 2019.

The following graph illustrates this decline.

Recession Measure, GDPClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the percent decline in real GDP from the previous peak (currently the previous peak was in Q4 2019).

This graph is through Q3 2020, and real GDP is currently off 3.5% from the previous peak.  For comparison, at the depth of the Great Recession, real GDP was down 4.0% from the previous peak.

The black arrow shows what a 3.3% annualized increase in real GDP would look like in Q4.