Friday, November 13, 2020

DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 9.7% year-over-year in September

by Calculated Risk on 11/13/2020 02:14:00 PM

The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:

Travel on all roads and streets changed by -8.6% (-23.4 billion vehicle miles) for September 2020 as compared with September 2019. Travel for the month is estimated to be 248.3 billion vehicle miles.

The seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled for September 2020 is 247.2 billion miles, a -9.7% (-26.7 billion vehicle miles) decline from September 2019. It also represents 2.8% increase (6.7 billion vehicle miles) compared with August 2020.

Cumulative Travel for 2020 changed by -14.5% (-355.5 billion vehicle miles). The cumulative estimate for the year is 2,093.1 billion vehicle miles of travel.
emphasis added
Vehicle Miles Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the rolling 12 month total vehicle miles driven to remove the seasonal factors.

Miles driven declined during the great recession, and the rolling 12 months stayed below the previous peak for a record 85 months.

Miles driven declined sharply in March, and really collapsed in April.   

Vehicle Miles YoYThis graph shows the YoY change in vehicle miles driven.

Miles driven rebounded in May through August, but is still down 9.7% YoY (seasonally adjusted).  

Based on gasoline consumption, I expect the year-over-year decline in vehicle miles to be about the same in October as in September.