NEW! CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Monday, November 23, 2020

Chicago Fed National Activity "Index Suggests Economic Growth Increased in October"

by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2020 01:09:00 PM

Note: This is a composite index of other data.

From the Chicago Fed: Index Suggests Economic Growth Increased in October

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.83 in October from +0.32 in September. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in October, and three of the four categories increased from September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, fell to +0.75 in October from +1.37 in September.
emphasis added
This graph from the Chicago Fed shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index by category.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Click on graph for larger image.

According to the Chicago Fed:
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.
...
A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.