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Wednesday, November 25, 2020

A few Comments on October New Home Sales

by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2020 01:14:00 PM

New home sales for October were reported at 999,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Sales for the previous three months were revised up.

This was above consensus expectations of 975,000, and was the third highest sales rate since 2006 (behind August and September - that were both revised up). Clearly low mortgages rates, low existing home supply, and low sales in March and April (due to the pandemic) have led to a strong increase in sales.  Favorable demographics (something I wrote about many times over the last decade) and a surging stock market have probably helped new home sales too.

Earlier: New Home Sales at 999,000 Annual Rate in October.

New Home Sales 2019 2020Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows new home sales for 2019 and 2020 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

New home sales were up 41.5% year-over-year (YoY) in October.   Year-to-date (YTD) sales are up 20.6% (This is even above my optimistic forecast for 2020!).

And on inventory: since new home sales are reported when the contract is signed - even if the home hasn't been started - new home sales are not limited by inventory (except if no lots are available).  Inventory for new home sales is important in that it means there will be more housing starts if inventory is low (like right now) - and fewer starts if inventory is too high (not now).