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Wednesday, October 28, 2020

Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: "Annual growth in September as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate"

by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2020 08:29:00 AM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for August were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: August Case-Shiller Results and September Forecast: No Signs of Cooling

The remarkable surge in home prices continued into August as prices showed no signs of cooling down heading into the fall.
By some measures, home prices are rising at a faster pace than they ever have – an incredible feat considering the market is rising from an already elevated level. The supply of for-sale homes, already extremely tight, has only become more constrained in recent months, and historically low mortgage rates continue to encourage many buyers to enter the market. This heightened competition for the few homes on the market has placed consistent, firm pressure on home prices for months now, and there are few signs that this will relent any time soon. While the path of the overall economy is likely to be most directly dictated by coronavirus-related and political developments in the coming months, recent trends suggest that the housing market – which has basically withstood every pandemic-related challenge to this point – will continue its strong momentum in the months to come.

Annual growth in September as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate in all three main indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the September S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, November 24.
emphasis added
Zillow forecast for Case-Shiller The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 6.6% in September, up from 5.7% in August.

The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to be up 6.2% YoY in September from 5.2% in August, and for the 10-City index to increase to be up 5.7% YoY compared to 4.7% YoY in August.