Thursday, October 29, 2020

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 751,000

by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2020 08:52:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending October 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 751,000, a decrease of 40,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 4,000 from 787,000 to 791,000. The 4-week moving average was 787,750, a decrease of 24,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,000 from 811,250 to 812,250.
emphasis added
This does not include the 359,667 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 344,905 the previous week. (There are some questions on PUA numbers).

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 811,250.

The previous week was revised up.

The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).

At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.

Continued claims decreased to 7,756,000 (SA) from 8,465,000 (SA) last week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.

Note: There are an additional 10,324,779 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that increased from 10,152,753 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. 

An additional 3,683,496 are receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC).