Thursday, October 22, 2020

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 787,000

by Calculated Risk on 10/22/2020 08:39:00 AM

Special Note: "California has completed its pause in processing of initial claims and has resumed reporting actual unemployment insurance claims data based on their weekly claims activity. This News Release reflects actual counts for California for the current week and revisions to the two prior weeks."

The DOL reported:

In the week ending October 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 787,000, a decrease of 55,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 56,000 from 898,000 to 842,000. The 4-week moving average was 811,250, a decrease of 21,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 33,500 from 866,250 to 832,750.
emphasis added
This does not include the 345,440 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 337,228 the previous week. (There are some questions on PUA numbers).

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 811,250.

The previous week was revised down.

The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).

At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.

Continued claims decreased to 8,373,000 (SA) from 9,397,000 (SA) last week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.

Note: There are an additional 10,232,853 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 10,658,673 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.