Thursday, October 15, 2020

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 898,000

by Calculated Risk on 10/15/2020 08:38:00 AM

Special technical note on California (two week pause).

The DOL reported:

In the week ending October 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 898,000, an increase of 53,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 5,000 from 840,000 to 845,000. The 4-week moving average was 866,250, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,250 from 857,000 to 858,250.
emphasis added
This does not include the 372,891 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 463,897 the previous week. (There are some questions on PUA numbers).

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 866,250.

The previous week was revised up.

The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).

At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.

Continued claims decreased to 10,018,000 (SA) from 11,183,000 (SA) last week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.

Note: There are an additional 11,172,335 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 11,394,832 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.