Thursday, October 01, 2020

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 837,000

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2020 08:40:00 AM

Special technical note this week on California (see release).

The DOL reported:

In the week ending September 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 837,000, a decrease of 36,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 870,000 to 873,000. The 4-week moving average was 867,250, a decrease of 11,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 750 from 878,250 to 879,000.
emphasis added
This does not include the 650,120 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 615,599 the previous week. (There are some questions on PUA numbers).

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 867,250.

The previous week was revised up.

The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).

At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.

Continued claims decreased to 11,767,000 (SA) from 12,747,000 (SA) last week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.

Note: There are an additional 11,828,338 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that increased from 11,510,888 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.