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Saturday, October 31, 2020

Schedule for Week of November 1, 2020

by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2020 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is the October employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the October ISM manufacturing and services indexes, October vehicle sales, and the September trade deficit.

The FOMC meets on Wednesday and Thursday this week, and no change in policy is expected.

----- Monday, November 2nd -----

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for October.  The consensus is for 55.8%, up from 55.4%.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The PMI was at 55.4% in September, the employment index was at 49.6%, and the new orders index was at 60.2%

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for September.  The consensus is for 0.9% increase in spending.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for October.

The consensus is for sales of 16.5 million SAAR, up from 16.3 million SAAR in September (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

----- Tuesday, November 3rd -----

8:00 AM ET: Corelogic House Price index for September.

----- Wednesday, November 4th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 650,000 jobs added, down from 749,000 in September.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for September from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for the deficit to be $64.0 billion in September, from $67.1 billion in August.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for October.  The consensus is for a decrease to 57.5 from 57.8.

----- Thursday, November 5th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is initial claims decreased to 725 thousand from 751 thousand last week.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change in policy is expected at this meeting..

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Friday, November 6th -----

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart8:30 AM: Employment Report for October.   The consensus is for 600 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 7.6%.

There were 661 thousand jobs added in September, and the unemployment rate was at 7.9%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and the worst in terms of the unemployment rate.