by Calculated Risk on 10/16/2020 09:22:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production fell 0.6 percent in September, its first decline after four consecutive months of gains. The index increased at an annual rate of 39.8 percent for the third quarter as a whole. Although production has recovered more than half of its February to April decline, the September reading was still 7.1 percent below its pre-pandemic February level. Manufacturing output decreased 0.3 percent in September and was 6.4 percent below February's level. The output of utilities dropped 5.6 percent, as demand for air conditioning fell by more than usual in September. Mining production increased 1.7 percent in September; even so, it was 14.8 percent below a year earlier. At 101.5 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 7.3 percent lower in September than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.5 percentage point in September to 71.5 percent, a rate that is 8.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average but 7.3 percentage points above its low in April.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April, but still well below the level in February 2020.

Capacity utilization at 71.5% is 8.3% below the average from 1972 to 2017.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production decreased in September to  101.5. This is 7.1% below the February 2020 level.

The change in industrial production was well below consensus expectations, however industrial production in July and August were revised up.