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Saturday, September 26, 2020

Schedule for Week of September 27, 2020

by Calculated Risk on 9/26/2020 08:07:00 AM

The key report this week is the September employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the third estimate of Q2 GDP, the September ISM manufacturing index, September auto sales, Personal Income and Outlays for August and Case-Shiller house prices for July.

----- Monday, September 28th -----

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for September. This is the last of the regional surveys for September.

----- Tuesday, September 29th -----

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for July.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 3.8% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for July.

----- Wednesday, September 30th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for September. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 605,000 jobs added, up from 428,000 in August.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2020 (Third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP decreased 31.7% annualized in Q2, unchanged from the second estimate of -31.7%.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 52.0, up from 51.2 in August.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for August. The consensus is 3.2% increase in the index.

----- Thursday, October 1st -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Initial claims were 870 thousand the previous week.

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for August. The consensus is for a 2.2% decrease in personal income, and for a 0.7% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 56.2, up from 56.0 in August.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The PMI was at 56.0% in August, the employment index was at 46.3%, and the new orders index was at 67.6%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for August. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for September.

The consensus is for sales of 16.2 million SAAR, up from 15.2 million SAAR in August (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

----- Friday, October 2nd -----

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart8:30 AM: Employment Report for September.   The consensus is for 850 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 8.2%.

There were 1.371 million jobs added in August, and the unemployment rate was at 8.4%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and the worst in terms of the unemployment rate.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for September). The consensus is for a reading of 92.0.