Thursday, September 24, 2020

Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Increased at a Slower Pace" in September

by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2020 12:03:00 PM

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Increased at a Slower Pace

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the September Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity increased at a slower pace in September and remained lower than a year ago, while expectations for future activity were positive.

“Regional factory activity expanded again in September but was still below year-ago levels for the majority of firms,” said Wilkerson. “Firms’ expectations for future activity continued to be relatively optimistic, although they anticipated slightly lower wage and salary growth in the year ahead.”

The month-over-month composite index was 11 in September, slightly lower than 14 in August but higher than 3 in July ...The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Activity at non-durable and durable goods factories expanded at a similar pace. The increase in activity at food and beverage manufacturers was slower in September than in previous months, when activity bounced back more sharply. Most month-over-month indexes remained positive, indicating continued expansion. Production, shipments, new orders, and employment rose at a slower pace, while order backlog and supplier delivery time increased. The indexes for employee workweek and new orders for exports dipped slightly, and inventory indexes for materials and finished goods were negative.
emphasis added
This suggests activity has bottomed, but activity is still below a year ago.