Thursday, September 03, 2020

Goldman August Payrolls Preview

by Calculated Risk on 9/03/2020 03:54:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payroll growth rose 1.9mn in August, above consensus of +1.35mn. The resurgence of the coronavirus did not produce a meaningful increase in layoffs in the Sun Belt based on jobless claims data, and high-frequency surveys replicating the BLS approach indicate robust August job gains. ... We also expect a 0.25mn boost from Census canvassing activities.

We estimate the unemployment rate declined by 0.4pp to 9.8%
emphasis added