Thursday, August 27, 2020

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 1,006,000

by Calculated Risk on 8/27/2020 08:44:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending August 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,006,000, a decrease of 98,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 2,000 from 1,106,000 to 1,104,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,068,000, a decrease of 107,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 500 from 1,175,750 to 1,175,250.
emphasis added
The previous week was revised down.

This does not include the 607,806 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 524,986 the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 1,068,000.

Initial weekly claims was below the consensus forecast of 1.100 million initial claims, and the previous week was revised down.

The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).

At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.

Continued claims decreased to 14,535,000 (SA) from 14,758,000 (SA) last week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.

Note: There are an additional 10,972,770 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 11,224,774 the previous week. This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.