Thursday, August 06, 2020

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 1,186,000

by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2020 08:38:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending August 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,186,000, a decrease of 249,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 1,434,000 to 1,435,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,337,750, a decrease of 31,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 1,368,500 to 1,368,750.
emphasis added
The previous week was revised up.

This does not include the 655,707 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA).

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 1,337,750.

Initial weekly claims was below the consensus forecast of 1.415 million initial claims, however the previous week was revised up slightly.

The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).

At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.

Continued claims decreased to 16,107,000 (SA) from 16,951,000 (SA) last week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.

Note: There are an additional 12,956,478 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.