Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Year-over-year House Price Growth to Slow Slightly in June

by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2020 07:47:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for May were released earlier today. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: May Case-Shiller Results and June Forecast: Housing Doesn't Blink in Face of Pandemic

Record-low mortgage rates and a shortage of available homes have fueled competition amongst buyers in the spring and early summer, leading to homes flying off the market at their fastest pace in years and home prices to continue to rise. The savings afforded by record-low mortgage rates allows those who are still in a strong financial position the opportunity to buy a home – and might also allow them to pursue homes that were previously above their price range. Some, of course, are not nearly as fortunate. Data since May suggest that demand and price dynamics have continued, but substantial risks have emerged in recent weeks. A resurgence in coronavirus case counts, and the broader economic uncertainty that accompanies it, poses new risks to the outlook for home prices, and seasonal factors should start to erode buyer demand. It’s likely that the housing market will feel the effects of this downturn at some point, but a shortage of inventory and low rates should continue to place upward pressure on prices.

... S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the June S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, August 25.
emphasis added
Zillow forecast for Case-Shiller The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 4.3% in June, down from 4.5% in May.

The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to be up 3.4% YoY in June from 3.7% in May, and for the 10-City index to increase to be up 2.8% YoY compared to 3.1% YoY in May.