Thursday, July 09, 2020

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 1,314,000

by Calculated Risk on 7/09/2020 08:39:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending July 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,314,000, a decrease of 99,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 14,000 from 1,427,000 to 1,413,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,437,250, a decrease of 63,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 3,500 from 1,503,750 to 1,500,250.
emphasis added
The previous week was revised down.

This does not include the 1,038,905 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA).  This was an increase from the previous week, and the previous week was revised up.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 1,437,250.

Initial weekly claims were below the consensus forecast of 1.4 million initial claims and the previous week was revised down.

The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).

At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.

Continued claims decreased to 18,062,000 (SA) from 18,760,000 (SA) last week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.

Note: There are an additional 14,363,143 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.