Thursday, July 16, 2020

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 1,300,000

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2020 08:37:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending July 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,300,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 4,000 from 1,314,000 to 1,310,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,375,000, a decrease of 60,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 2,250 from 1,437,250 to 1,435,000.
emphasis added
The previous week was revised down.

This does not include the 928,488 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA).

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 1,375,000.

Initial weekly claims was at the consensus forecast of 1.3 million initial claims and the previous week was revised down.

The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).

At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.

Continued claims decreased to 17,338,000 (SA) from 17,760,000 (SA) last week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.

Note: There are an additional 14,282,999 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.