Thursday, July 02, 2020

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 1,427,000

by Calculated Risk on 7/02/2020 08:55:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending June 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,427,000, a decrease of 55,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 1,480,000 to 1,482,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,503,750, a decrease of 117,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 1,620,750 to 1,621,250.
emphasis added
The previous week was revised up.

This does not include the 839,563 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA).

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 1,503,750.

This was close to the consensus forecast of 1.4 million initial claims and the previous week was revised up.

The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).

At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.

Continued claims increased to 19,290,000 (SA) from 19,231,000 (SA) last week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.

Note: There are an additional 12,853,163 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.