Friday, July 24, 2020

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 35% Annual Rate Decline

by Calculated Risk on 7/24/2020 11:39:00 AM

Important: GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). So a 35% Q2 decline is around 10% decline from Q1 (SA).

From Merrill Lynch:

The advance 2Q GDP estimate comes out next Thursday and will reveal the depth of the recession. Real activity likely collapsed -36% qoq saar, translating into a peak-to-trough decline of -11.7%. ... We forecast a contraction of -5.7% in 2020, followed by a 3.4% rebound 2021. [July 24 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at -14.3% for 2020:Q2 and 13.3% for 2020:Q3. [July 24 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -34.7 percent on July 17, down from -34.5 percent on July 16. [July 17 estimate]