Thursday, July 16, 2020

NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 72 in July

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2020 10:08:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 72, up from 58 in June. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From NAHB: Builder Confidence Rallies to Pre-Pandemic Level in July

In a strong signal that the housing market is ready to lead a post-COVID economic recovery, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes jumped 14 points to 72 in July, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. The HMI now stands at the solid pre-pandemic reading in March before the outbreak affected much of the nation.

“Builders are seeing strong traffic and lots of interest in new construction as existing home inventory remains lean,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. “Moreover, builders in the Northeast and the Midwest are benefiting from demand that was sidelined during lockdowns in the spring. Low interest rates are also fueling demand, and we expect housing to lead an overall economic recovery.”

“While the housing market is clearly rebounding, challenges exist,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Lumber prices are at a two-year high and builders are reporting rising costs for other building materials while lot and skilled labor availability issues persist. Nonetheless, the important story of the changing geography of housing demand is benefiting new construction. New home demand is improving in lower density markets, including small metro areas, rural markets and large metro exurbs, as people seek out larger homes and anticipate more flexibility for telework in the years ahead. Flight to the suburbs is real.”
emphasis added
NAHB HMI Click on graph for larger image.

This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was above the consensus forecast.