Wednesday, July 15, 2020

Industrial Production Increased 5.4 Percent in June; Still 10.8% Below Pre-Crisis Level

by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2020 09:23:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Total industrial production rose 5.4 percent in June after increasing 1.4 percent in May; even so, it remained 10.9 percent below its pre-pandemic February level. For the second quarter as a whole, the index fell 42.6 percent at an annual rate, its largest quarterly decrease since the industrial sector retrenched after World War II. Manufacturing output climbed 7.2 percent in June, as all major industries posted increases. The largest gain—105.0 percent—was registered by motor vehicles and parts, while factory production elsewhere rose 3.9 percent. Mining production fell 2.9 percent, and the output of utilities increased 4.2 percent. At 97.5 percent of its 2012 average, the level of total industrial production was 10.8 percent lower in June than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 3.5 percentage points to 68.6 percent in June, a rate that is 11.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average but 1.9 percentage points above its trough during the Great Recession.
emphasis added
Capacity Utilization Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up slightly from the record low set last month, and still below the trough of the Great Recession (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 68.6% is 11.2% below the average from 1972 to 2017.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Industrial ProductionThe second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased in June to  97.5. This is 10.8% below the February 2020 level.

The change in industrial production was slightly above consensus expectations.