Friday, July 31, 2020

Early Q3 GDP Forecasts

by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2020 12:24:00 PM

Important: GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Also, even if activity is flat in Q3 compared to June, GDP will show a significant increase in Q3 over Q2 because of the sharp decline in April.

From Merrill Lynch:

We look for GDP to grow by 15.0% qoq saar in 3Q. We forecast a contraction of -5.7% in 2020, followed by a 2.8% rebound 2021. [July 31 estimate]
emphasis added
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 11.9 percent on July 31. On July 30, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its initial estimate of second-quarter real GDP growth as -32.9 percent, 0.8 percentage points below the final GDPNow model nowcast released on July 29. [July 31 estimate]