Friday, June 12, 2020

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 40% Annual Rate Decline

by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2020 12:15:00 PM

Important: GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). So a 40% Q2 decline is around 9% decline from Q1 (SA).

From Merrill Lynch:

2Q GDP is tracking at -39.8% qoq saar. [June 12 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at -25.9% for 2020:Q2 and -12.5% for 2020:Q3. [June 12 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -48.5 percent on June 9, up from -53.8 percent on June 4. [June 9 estimate]