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Friday, June 19, 2020

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 33% Annual Rate Decline

by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2020 11:20:00 AM

Important: GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). So a 33% Q2 decline is around 8% decline from Q1 (SA).

From Merrill Lynch:

We revise up 2Q GDP to -35% qoq saar from -40% and 3Q to 20% from 7%, given the faster and more successful reopening. [June 18 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We have adjusted our real GDP growth forecasts and now expect -33% in Q2, +33% in Q3, and +8% in Q4 (vs. -36%, +29%, and +11% previously) in qoq annualized terms. [June 18 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at -19.0% for 2020:Q2 and -1.9% for 2020:Q3. [June 19 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -45.5 percent on June 17, down from -45.4 percent on June 16. [June 17 estimate]