Wednesday, May 20, 2020

U.S. Births decreased in 2019, "Lowest number of births since 1985"

by Calculated Risk on 5/20/2020 10:38:00 AM

From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Provisional Data for 2019. The NCHS reports:

The provisional number of births for the United States in 2019 was 3,745,540, down 1% from the number in 2018 (3,791,712). This is the fifth year that the number of births has declined after the increase in 2014, down an average of 1% per year, and the lowest number of births since 1985.

The provisional general fertility rate (GFR) for the United States in 2019 was 58.2 births per 1,000 females aged 15–44, down 2% from the rate in 2018 (59.1), another record low for the nation. From 2014 to 2019, the GFR declined by an average of 2% per year.

The birth rate for teenagers in 2019 was 16.6 births per 1,000 females aged 15–19, down 5% from 2018 (17.4), reaching another record low for this age group. The rate has declined by 60% since 2007 (41.5), the most recent period of continued decline, and 73% since 1991, the most recent peak.
Here is a long term graph of annual U.S. births through 2018.

U.S. Births per Year Click on graph for larger image.

Births have declined for five consecutive years following increases in 2013 and 2014.

Note the amazing decline in teenage births.

With fewer births, and less net migration, demographics will not be as favorable as I was expecting a few years ago.

There is much more in the report.